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4. Critically examine the Hicksian model of trade cycles.
Ans: Introduction
Trade cycles, also known as business cycles, refer to the periodic fluctuations in economic activity,
characterized by phases of expansion and contraction. Several economists have attempted to
explain why economies experience these ups and downs. One of the well-known theories of trade
cycles is the Hicksian Model of Trade Cycles, proposed by British economist John R. Hicks in his
book A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle (1950). Hicks' model builds upon Keynesian
principles and introduces the concept of the multiplier-accelerator interaction to explain business
cycles.
Key Features of the Hicksian Model
The Hicksian model primarily explains economic fluctuations through two main forces:
1. The Multiplier Effect: This concept, derived from Keynesian economics, suggests that an
initial increase in investment or spending leads to a greater overall increase in income and
output. For example, if the government invests in building roads, the workers employed in
the project will have more money to spend, which will further boost demand in other
industries.
2. The Accelerator Effect: This principle suggests that an increase in income and output leads
to higher investments. Businesses, seeing a rise in demand for their goods and services,
invest in new machinery and factories to expand production. Conversely, when demand
falls, businesses cut back on investments, leading to a downward economic trend.
How the Hicksian Model Explains Trade Cycles
Hicks argued that trade cycles occur due to the interaction between the multiplier and
the accelerator. His model suggests that when the economy is expanding, the multiplier
effect stimulates economic growth, and the accelerator effect further amplifies it. However,
economic expansion cannot continue indefinitely due to ceiling and floor constraints, which lead to
fluctuations.
1. The Ceiling Constraint (Upper Limit)
The economy cannot grow indefinitely because of physical and financial limitations. Some of the
major constraints that prevent continuous economic expansion include:
• Full Employment: When all available workers are employed, businesses cannot hire more
workers to expand production.
• Limited Resources: Shortages of raw materials, machinery, or energy sources can slow down
production.
• Inflation: When demand exceeds supply, prices rise, reducing the purchasing power of
consumers and slowing down further spending.
When these constraints are reached, economic growth slows down, leading to a turning
point where expansion shifts to contraction.